Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on November 4?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $393 held · ends Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$393.37

Combined PnL

$1.8

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$393.24

Total Shares393

Combined PnL+$16.49

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.1

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$14.69

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$87.41	$87.46	+$0.04	60% 11576-7759 (19335)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$53.87	$53.89	+$0.02	30% 2222-5090 (7312)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.5¢	$45.12	$48.21	+$3.09	58% 18975-13958 (32933)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 94¢	$32.91	$34.96	+$2.05	79% 12088-3268 (15356)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 86.5¢	$33.56	$33.76	+$7.46	39% 1003-1586 (2589)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$29.89	$29.97	+$0.08	53% 28804-25713 (54517)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$27.61	$27.64	+$0.03	39% 992-1523 (2515)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$27.16	$27.4	+$0.24	41% 1145-1641 (2786)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$25.5	$25.68	+$0.18	38% 997-1606 (2603)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$17.53	$20.73	+$3.2	53% 9849-8576 (18425)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$2.06	$2.07	+$0.01	40% 2104-3149 (5253)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$6.29	$1.47	+$0.08	55% 4365-3560 (7925)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.3¢	$99.78	$0.1	-$14.68	58% 2456-1793 (4249)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.01	47% 1630-1807 (3437)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$87.41

Value

$87.46

PnL

+$0.04

Record

60%

11576-7759 (19335)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$53.87

Value

$53.89

PnL

+$0.02

Record

30%

2222-5090 (7312)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.12

Value

$48.21

PnL

+$3.09

Record

58%

18975-13958 (32933)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$32.91

Value

$34.96

PnL

+$2.05

Record

79%

12088-3268 (15356)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$33.56

Value

$33.76

PnL

+$7.46

Record

39%

1003-1586 (2589)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$29.89

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

28804-25713 (54517)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$27.61

Value

$27.64

PnL

+$0.03

Record

39%

992-1523 (2515)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$27.16

Value

$27.4

PnL

+$0.24

Record

41%

1145-1641 (2786)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$25.5

Value

$25.68

PnL

+$0.18

Record

38%

997-1606 (2603)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$17.53

Value

$20.73

PnL

+$3.2

Record

53%

9849-8576 (18425)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.01

Record

40%

2104-3149 (5253)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.29

Value

$1.47

PnL

+$0.08

Record

55%

4365-3560 (7925)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$99.78

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$14.68

Record

58%

2456-1793 (4249)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1630-1807 (3437)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.