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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 13°C on November 4?

Resolved Yes. 52% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

21

No 62%

Total Value

$152.13

Combined PnL

-$338.02

Smart Money Signal

No

11 of 21 top traders (52%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes10 traders

Total Value$152.13

Total Shares152

Combined PnL+$375.48

No11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,174

Combined PnL-$713.5

Yes — 48%No — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch	Yesavg 40.4¢	$83.96	$110.77	+$61.32	54% 10037-8676 (18713)
24 241532532432CTR	Noavg 85.2¢	$286.97	—	-$266.97	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
IstarothCTR	Noavg 72.9¢	$425.61	—	-$406.85	14% 461-2758 (3219)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 61.2¢	$20.41	$17.2	-$3.2	47% 2141-2439 (4580)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Yesavg 60.4¢	$14.24	$12.08	-$2.16	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 64.8¢	$9.97	$10.2	+$0.23	40% 2177-3221 (5398)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 27.9¢	$6.82	—	-$6.82	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 12.7¢	$28.01	—	+$16.25	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$0.16	$1.16	+$1	56% 631-505 (1136)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 22.1¢	$90.94	$0.71	+$319.72	41% 799-1129 (1928)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 14.1¢	$12.49	—	-$12.49	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 4.7¢	$4.13	—	-$4.13	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 19.7¢	$10.63	—	-$10.63	32% 2522-5398 (7920)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$25.51	—	-$21.86	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Noavg 37.2¢	—	—	+$0	39% 5666-8726 (14392)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Noavg 72¢	—	—	+$0	51% 3690-3541 (7231)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Yesavg 60.9¢	—	—	+$0	40% 1050-1578 (2628)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 54¢	—	—	+$0	39% 1055-1660 (2715)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 53.2¢	$70.89	—	-$1.42	53% 8228-7325 (15553)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 51.1¢	—	—	+$0	41% 1183-1676 (2859)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Yesavg 75¢	—	—	+$0	47% 1690-1872 (3562)

Invested

$83.96

Value

$110.77

PnL

+$61.32

Record

54%

10037-8676 (18713)

241532532432CTR

Invested

$286.97

Value

—

PnL

-$266.97

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

Invested

$425.61

Value

—

PnL

-$406.85

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$20.41

Value

$17.2

PnL

-$3.2

Record

47%

2141-2439 (4580)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$14.24

Value

$12.08

PnL

-$2.16

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.23

Record

40%

2177-3221 (5398)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$6.82

Value

—

PnL

-$6.82

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$28.01

Value

—

PnL

+$16.25

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

631-505 (1136)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$90.94

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$319.72

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$12.49

Value

—

PnL

-$12.49

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

—

PnL

-$4.13

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$10.63

Value

—

PnL

-$10.63

Record

32%

2522-5398 (7920)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$25.51

Value

—

PnL

-$21.86

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

5666-8726 (14392)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

3690-3541 (7231)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

1050-1578 (2628)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

1055-1660 (2715)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$70.89

Value

—

PnL

-$1.42

Record

53%

8228-7325 (15553)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1183-1676 (2859)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1690-1872 (3562)

Smart Money Signal

No

11 of 21 top traders (52%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x65be0784...f8f7ff

Slug

highest-temperature-in-beijing-on-november-4-2026-13c

Traders in this Market

Poligarch

Yes — $110.77

241532532432

No — $0

Istaroth

No — $0

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Yes — $17.2

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Yes — $12.08

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Yes — $10.2

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658

No — $0

ghorrock

No — $0

HellYeahTrader

Yes — $1.16

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes — $0.71

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