Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on November 2?

6 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (35%) · Yes at 90¢ · $959 held · ends Nov 2

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 35%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$958.57

Combined PnL

$235.18

Smart Money Entry

45.8¢ → 90¢

+97% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 17 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$810.42

Total Shares1,303

Combined PnL+$279.95

No11 traders

Total Value$80.72

Total Shares712

Combined PnL-$44.77

Yes — 35%No — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 45.6¢	$295.95	$670.3	+$251.82	48% 722-797 (1519)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$66.77	$99.41	+$29.38	55% 514-423 (937)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 53.1¢	$84.25	$67.42	-$3.53	18% 381-1779 (2160)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.7¢	$33.82	$41.55	+$7.59
└ No leg	Noavg 53.1¢	$36.14	$25.88	-$11.13
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Yesavg 80.4¢	$23.75	$19.7	-$4.05	52% 570-533 (1103)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 10.9¢	$19.5	$18.14	-$1.35	49% 379-389 (768)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 21.9¢	$30.8	$12.67	-$18.13	58% 3434-2465 (5899)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 34.5¢	$11.89	$12.08	+$0.38	56% 14530-11397 (25927)
BE berlinskies<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$9.13	$9.81	+$0.67	58% 5928-4342 (10270)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 23.7¢	$19.87	$7.76	-$12.11	48% 349-380 (729)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 15.8¢	$9.88	$6.61	-$3.27	46% 89-104 (193)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$4.81	$6.52	+$1.71	46% 41-49 (90)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$3.29	$5.41	+$2.12	18% 536-2429 (2965)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Noavg 13.8¢	$7.87	$5.14	-$2.73	51% 1004-958 (1962)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$4.26	$4.68	+$0.42	45% 5638-6771 (12409)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 19.1¢	$9.37	$4.41	-$4.96	52% 1127-1021 (2148)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 17.3¢	$6.35	$3.31	-$3.04	43% 467-625 (1092)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Noavg 7.8¢	$2.5	$2.9	+$0.39	65% 1019-555 (1574)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 17.1¢	$4.35	$2.28	-$2.06	50% 456-455 (911)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$295.95

Value

$670.3

PnL

+$251.82

Record

48%

722-797 (1519)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.77

Value

$99.41

PnL

+$29.38

Record

55%

514-423 (937)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$84.25

Value

$67.42

PnL

-$3.53

Record

18%

381-1779 (2160)

Both legs:

Yes$33.8249.7¢+$7.59

No$36.1453.1¢-$11.13

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.75

Value

$19.7

PnL

-$4.05

Record

52%

570-533 (1103)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$19.5

Value

$18.14

PnL

-$1.35

Record

49%

379-389 (768)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$30.8

Value

$12.67

PnL

-$18.13

Record

58%

3434-2465 (5899)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$11.89

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$0.38

Record

56%

14530-11397 (25927)

berlinskies<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.13

Value

$9.81

PnL

+$0.67

Record

58%

5928-4342 (10270)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$19.87

Value

$7.76

PnL

-$12.11

Record

48%

349-380 (729)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$9.88

Value

$6.61

PnL

-$3.27

Record

46%

89-104 (193)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.81

Value

$6.52

PnL

+$1.71

Record

46%

41-49 (90)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$3.29

Value

$5.41

PnL

+$2.12

Record

18%

536-2429 (2965)

luciebotCTR<$100

Invested

$7.87

Value

$5.14

PnL

-$2.73

Record

51%

1004-958 (1962)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.26

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.42

Record

45%

5638-6771 (12409)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$9.37

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$4.96

Record

52%

1127-1021 (2148)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$6.35

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$3.04

Record

43%

467-625 (1092)

e46m3CTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.39

Record

65%

1019-555 (1574)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$2.06

Record

50%

456-455 (911)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 17 top traders (35%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.