Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on November 1?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 38¢ · $335 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$334.91
-$15.85
39.8¢ → 38¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $202.14 | $187.07 | -$15.07 | 21% 305-1161 (1466) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.5¢ | $81.57 | $82.6 | +$1.03 | 62% 1439-887 (2326) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $58.5 | $55.8 | -$2.7 | 53% 6510-5722 (12232) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.4¢ | $8.55 | $9.45 | +$0.89 | 59% 1779-1227 (3006) |
IstarothCTRInvested
$202.14
Value
$187.07
PnL
-$15.07
Record
21%
305-1161 (1466)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$81.57
Value
$82.6
PnL
+$1.03
Record
62%
1439-887 (2326)
Invested
$58.5
Value
$55.8
PnL
-$2.7
Record
53%
6510-5722 (12232)
Invested
$8.55
Value
$9.45
PnL
+$0.89
Record
59%
1779-1227 (3006)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.