Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 11°C on November 16?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 99¢ · $200 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$199.66

Combined PnL

-$2.03

Smart Money Entry

99.2¢ → 99.3¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$198.75

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$0.71

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.91

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$1.32

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.4¢	$108.64	$108.08	-$0.56	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.22	$29.08	-$0.15	58% 914-665 (1579)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$19.82	$19.85	+$0.03	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$17.98	$18.26	+$0.28	43% 851-1141 (1992)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.89	-$0.07	32% 1142-2481 (3623)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$5.94	$5.89	-$0.04	48% 1294-1427 (2721)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$3.57	$3.54	-$0.03	56% 888-693 (1581)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$2.5	$2.49	-$0.01	99% 1732-24 (1756)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.82	$1.67	-$0.16	60% 938-634 (1572)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.23	$0.91	-$1.32	54% 1126-978 (2104)

cigarettes

Invested

$108.64

Value

$108.08

PnL

-$0.56

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$29.22

Value

$29.08

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

914-665 (1579)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$19.82

Value

$19.85

PnL

+$0.03

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$17.98

Value

$18.26

PnL

+$0.28

Record

43%

851-1141 (1992)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.89

PnL

-$0.07

Record

32%

1142-2481 (3623)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.89

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

1294-1427 (2721)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.57

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$0.03

Record

56%

888-693 (1581)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

1732-24 (1756)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$1.82

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$0.16

Record

60%

938-634 (1572)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.23

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$1.32

Record

54%

1126-978 (2104)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.