Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on November 14?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 100¢ · $103 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$102.82

Combined PnL

-$3.78

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$78.78

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$1.67

Yes5 traders

Total Value$24.04

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$5.46

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$24.98	$25.57	+$0.59	35% 269-489 (758)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$22.28	$22.55	+$0.27	99% 1415-20 (1435)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90.5¢	$25.58	$11.96	+$1.11	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$17.71	$7.08	-$0.72	41% 711-1031 (1742)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.3¢	$9.88	$7.01	-$2.87	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.02	$5.02	-$0.01	46% 1143-1343 (2486)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.99	-$0	40% 243-368 (611)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.09	$4.81	-$0.29	51% 854-817 (1671)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.87	$4.19	+$3.32	62% 1138-702 (1840)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.89	$3.88	-$0	52% 815-755 (1570)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$11.45	$3.6	-$4.02	31% 204-459 (663)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.33	$2.16	-$1.17	54% 1228-1028 (2256)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$24.98

Value

$25.57

PnL

+$0.59

Record

35%

269-489 (758)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$22.28

Value

$22.55

PnL

+$0.27

Record

99%

1415-20 (1435)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.58

Value

$11.96

PnL

+$1.11

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.71

Value

$7.08

PnL

-$0.72

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.88

Value

$7.01

PnL

-$2.87

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

1143-1343 (2486)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

243-368 (611)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.09

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

854-817 (1671)

vibing123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$4.19

PnL

+$3.32

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.88

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

815-755 (1570)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.45

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$4.02

Record

31%

204-459 (663)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$1.17

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.