Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on November 14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 57¢ · $314 held · ended Nov 14

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$314.48

Combined PnL

-$11.95

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 57.5¢

-33% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$234.26

Total Shares258

Combined PnL+$11.98

Yes3 traders

Total Value$80.22

Total Shares616

Combined PnL-$23.93

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Noavg 85.4¢	$145.2	$156.53	+$11.33	62% 1138-702 (1840)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$56.54	$44.24	-$12.3	54% 2307-1980 (4287)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 18.4¢	$123.27	$31.21	-$13.07	41% 711-1031 (1742)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$24.09	$26.41	+$2.32	35% 269-489 (758)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.6¢	$31.87	$20.53	-$3.24	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 77¢	$11.18	$13.37	+$2.19	71% 902-361 (1263)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.33	$4.77	+$1.44	54% 1228-1028 (2256)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.75	$4.68	-$0.07	40% 243-368 (611)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.78	$4.65	-$0.13	50% 767-764 (1531)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 94¢	$4.8	$4.44	-$0.36	52% 815-755 (1570)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 95¢	$3.7	$3.64	-$0.06	46% 1143-1343 (2486)

vibing123

Invested

$145.2

Value

$156.53

PnL

+$11.33

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.54

Value

$44.24

PnL

-$12.3

Record

54%

2307-1980 (4287)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$123.27

Value

$31.21

PnL

-$13.07

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$24.09

Value

$26.41

PnL

+$2.32

Record

35%

269-489 (758)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$31.87

Value

$20.53

PnL

-$3.24

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.18

Value

$13.37

PnL

+$2.19

Record

71%

902-361 (1263)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$1.44

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$0.07

Record

40%

243-368 (611)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.65

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

767-764 (1531)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$0.36

Record

52%

815-755 (1570)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$0.06

Record

46%

1143-1343 (2486)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.