Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 64-65°F on November 14?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 99¢ · $159 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$159.15

Combined PnL

-$2.81

Smart Money Entry

82¢ → 99.3¢

+21% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$149.37

Total Shares186

Combined PnL+$1.37

Yes2 traders

Total Value$9.77

Total Shares55

Combined PnL-$4.18

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$61.15	$60.8	-$0.35	62% 1138-702 (1840)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89¢	$53.4	$48	-$5.4	71% 902-361 (1263)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$28.01	$15.97	-$0.18	53% 1811-1610 (3421)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$86.36	$8.64	-$4.41	41% 711-1031 (1742)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$32.2	$6.72	+$7.79	54% 1228-1028 (2256)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$5	$4.56	-$0.44	35% 269-489 (758)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.63	$4.09	+$0.46	58% 772-549 (1321)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.77	$3.7	-$0.08	49% 833-863 (1696)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 75¢	$2.98	$2.82	-$0.16	40% 243-368 (611)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 77¢	$3	$2.72	-$0.27	61% 779-497 (1276)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$0.89	$1.13	+$0.24	14% 90-555 (645)

vibing123<$100

Invested

$61.15

Value

$60.8

PnL

-$0.35

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$53.4

Value

$48

PnL

-$5.4

Record

71%

902-361 (1263)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.01

Value

$15.97

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.36

Value

$8.64

PnL

-$4.41

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$32.2

Value

$6.72

PnL

+$7.79

Record

54%

1228-1028 (2256)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

Value

$4.56

PnL

-$0.44

Record

35%

269-489 (758)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

772-549 (1321)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$3.77

Value

$3.7

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

833-863 (1696)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$2.98

Value

$2.82

PnL

-$0.16

Record

40%

243-368 (611)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$0.27

Record

61%

779-497 (1276)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.24

Record

14%

90-555 (645)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.