Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.9¢ · $45 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$44.72

Combined PnL

-$17.62

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$34.4

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.17

Yes6 traders

Total Value$10.31

Total Shares570

Combined PnL-$17.79

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$29.37	$29.46	+$0.09	17% 93-449 (542)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$11.07	$5.59	-$5.48	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$4.86	$4.94	+$0.08	62% 473-292 (765)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.47	$2.67	-$10.8	59% 1163-798 (1961)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$2.32	$1.53	-$0.79	35% 414-754 (1168)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.22	-$0.87	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$10.34	$0.18	+$0.16	53% 925-815 (1740)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.13	$0.13	+$0	48% 492-535 (1027)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.37

Value

$29.46

PnL

+$0.09

Record

17%

93-449 (542)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.07

Value

$5.59

PnL

-$5.48

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.08

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.47

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$10.8

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.32

Value

$1.53

PnL

-$0.79

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$0.87

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.34

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.9%

0.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5052.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5152.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.