Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on November 13?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 37¢ · $181 held · ends Nov 13

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$180.66

Combined PnL

$58.28

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$138.86

Total Shares390

Combined PnL+$59.92

No3 traders

Total Value$41.79

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$1.64

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.1¢	$59.53	$74.04	+$14.52	63% 2143-1253 (3396)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 26.6¢	$23.4	$31.24	+$7.84	36% 414-750 (1164)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$60.7	$21.73	+$33.76	59% 1163-798 (1961)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 69¢	$20.7	$19.35	-$1.35	17% 93-449 (542)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$19.38	$19.22	-$0.17	76% 672-216 (888)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.3¢	$7.81	$5.49	+$0.28	53% 920-807 (1727)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$3.83	+$2.73	40% 3243-4890 (8133)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.23	-$0.13	62% 470-289 (759)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.3¢	$21.74	$2.53	+$0.79	12% 37-268 (305)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.53

Value

$74.04

PnL

+$14.52

Record

63%

2143-1253 (3396)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.4

Value

$31.24

PnL

+$7.84

Record

36%

414-750 (1164)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.7

Value

$21.73

PnL

+$33.76

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$20.7

Value

$19.35

PnL

-$1.35

Record

17%

93-449 (542)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$19.38

Value

$19.22

PnL

-$0.17

Record

76%

672-216 (888)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

920-807 (1727)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$3.83

PnL

+$2.73

Record

40%

3243-4890 (8133)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$0.13

Record

62%

470-289 (759)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.74

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.79

Record

12%

37-268 (305)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.2%

37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.