Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on November 13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 32¢ · $270 held · ends Nov 13

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$269.98

Combined PnL

$59.3

Smart Money Entry

24.1¢ → 32¢

+33% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$213.53

Total Shares632

Combined PnL+$80.38

No4 traders

Total Value$56.44

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$21.09

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$108.29	$157.39	+$49.1	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 28.7¢	$53.59	$51.31	+$27.98	35% 414-754 (1168)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.8¢	$69.15	$30.38	-$16.01	53% 925-815 (1740)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 73.7¢	$14.74	$13.24	-$1.5	12% 37-269 (306)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$11.7	$9.51	-$2.18	76% 675-216 (891)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$4.06	+$2.97	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$4.71	$3.31	-$1.4	58% 481-347 (828)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.9¢	$0.44	$0.78	+$0.34	47% 524-596 (1120)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$108.29

Value

$157.39

PnL

+$49.1

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.59

Value

$51.31

PnL

+$27.98

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$69.15

Value

$30.38

PnL

-$16.01

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$14.74

Value

$13.24

PnL

-$1.5

Record

12%

37-269 (306)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$9.51

PnL

-$2.18

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$4.06

PnL

+$2.97

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.71

Value

$3.31

PnL

-$1.4

Record

58%

481-347 (828)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.78

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.2%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$192.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

292.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.