Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on November 13?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 7.1¢ · $96 held · ends Nov 13

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$95.73

Combined PnL

-$7.94

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$72.97

Total Shares79

Combined PnL-$5.07

Yes6 traders

Total Value$22.76

Total Shares435

Combined PnL-$2.87

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$29.79	$27.63	-$2.16	18% 81-367 (448)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$29.82	$27.51	-$2.31	25% 92-281 (373)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$2.5	$8.05	+$5.55	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.4	$7.58	+$5.18	35% 414-754 (1168)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$7.8	$7.46	-$0.34	53% 922-814 (1736)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$5.66	$5.77	+$0.1	76% 675-216 (891)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$4.97	$4.61	-$0.36	48% 492-535 (1027)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.47	$4.45	-$9.02	59% 1163-798 (1961)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$1.8	-$3.65	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$0.71	$0.52	-$0.19	47% 524-596 (1120)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.36	-$0.73	40% 3249-4894 (8143)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.79

Value

$27.63

PnL

-$2.16

Record

18%

81-367 (448)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.82

Value

$27.51

PnL

-$2.31

Record

25%

92-281 (373)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$5.55

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$5.18

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.46

PnL

-$0.34

Record

53%

922-814 (1736)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.66

Value

$5.77

PnL

+$0.1

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$4.61

PnL

-$0.36

Record

48%

492-535 (1027)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.47

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$9.02

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$3.65

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.71

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$0.19

Record

47%

524-596 (1120)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.73

Record

40%

3249-4894 (8143)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.5%

7.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1073.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

1173.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.