Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on November 13?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$76.29

Combined PnL

-$18.45

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$74.47

Total Shares75

Combined PnL-$0.2

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.82

Total Shares227

Combined PnL-$18.25

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.82	-$0.12	18% 81-367 (448)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.76	-$0.18	29% 892-2183 (3075)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98¢	$9.8	$9.92	+$0.13	53% 925-815 (1740)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.99	$4.97	-$0.02	48% 510-557 (1067)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.47	$1.19	-$12.28	59% 1163-798 (1961)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.48	-$4.97	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.1	-$0.99	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.06	$0.06	+$0	47% 544-625 (1169)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.82

PnL

-$0.12

Record

18%

81-367 (448)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.76

PnL

-$0.18

Record

29%

892-2183 (3075)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.92

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.47

Value

$1.19

PnL

-$12.28

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$4.97

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.99

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

544-625 (1169)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.