Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on November 13?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $165 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$165.09

Combined PnL

-$30.93

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$164.92

Total Shares165

Combined PnL+$0.08

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares343

Combined PnL-$31.01

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$164.84	$164.92	+$0.08	99% 675-8 (683)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.47	$0.07	-$13.4	59% 1163-798 (1961)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.03	-$5.42	27% 949-2550 (3499)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.03	-$5.42	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.17	$0.02	-$4.15	37% 3468-5985 (9453)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.01	-$1.08	40% 3249-4894 (8143)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.01	-$1.08	39% 1399-2234 (3633)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	42% 838-1166 (2004)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$164.84

Value

$164.92

PnL

+$0.08

Record

99%

675-8 (683)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.47

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$13.4

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.42

Record

27%

949-2550 (3499)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.42

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.15

Record

37%

3468-5985 (9453)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.08

Record

40%

3249-4894 (8143)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.08

Record

39%

1399-2234 (3633)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.