Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Austin be 65°F or below on November 13?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $100 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

Total Value

$100.25

Combined PnL

-$31.29

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$99.9

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$0

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.35

Total Shares348

Combined PnL-$31.29

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.9	+$0	99% 675-8 (683)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$13.47	$0.15	-$13.32	59% 1163-798 (1961)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.06	-$5.39	27% 949-2550 (3499)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.45	$0.06	-$5.39	47% 4825-5515 (10340)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.63	$0.05	-$4.58	37% 3468-5985 (9453)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.01	-$1.08	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.09	$0.01	-$1.07	39% 1399-2234 (3633)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.01	-$0.45	42% 838-1166 (2004)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.9

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

675-8 (683)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.47

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$13.32

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.39

Record

27%

949-2550 (3499)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.45

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.39

Record

47%

4825-5515 (10340)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.63

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.58

Record

37%

3468-5985 (9453)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.08

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.09

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.07

Record

39%

1399-2234 (3633)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.