Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on November 2?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 34¢ · $636 held · ended Nov 2

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$636.36

Combined PnL

-$3.65

Smart Money Entry

36.8¢ → 33.5¢

-9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$157.39

Total Shares487

Combined PnL-$21.76

No5 traders

Total Value$155.17

Total Shares201

Combined PnL+$18.11

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryARB<$100	Noavg 64¢	$314.72	$323.22	+$8.49	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
└ No leg	Noavg 64¢	$175.85	$185.47	+$9.62
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.8¢	$138.87	$137.75	-$1.12
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 37.1¢	$173.05	$151.73	-$21.32	50% 2042-2017 (4059)
RO rocky42019	Noavg 58.5¢	$118.52	$62.87	+$10.88	42% 1795-2476 (4271)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 64.9¢	$56.34	$59.45	+$3.11	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 66.8¢	$15.34	$16.08	+$1.32	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 54¢	$11.38	$13.91	+$2.74	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.5¢	$3.08	$2.88	-$0.2	56% 3737-2986 (6723)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 70¢	$2.8	$2.86	+$0.06	53% 7528-6656 (14184)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$3.02	$2.78	-$0.24	28% 5957-15587 (21544)

BilberryARB<$100

Invested

$314.72

Value

$323.22

PnL

+$8.49

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

Both legs:

No$175.8564¢+$9.62

Yes$138.8732.8¢-$1.12

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$173.05

Value

$151.73

PnL

-$21.32

Record

50%

2042-2017 (4059)

rocky42019

Invested

$118.52

Value

$62.87

PnL

+$10.88

Record

42%

1795-2476 (4271)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$56.34

Value

$59.45

PnL

+$3.11

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.34

Value

$16.08

PnL

+$1.32

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$11.38

Value

$13.91

PnL

+$2.74

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.08

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.2

Record

56%

3737-2986 (6723)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.06

Record

53%

7528-6656 (14184)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.02

Value

$2.78

PnL

-$0.24

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.