Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 31?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 98¢ · $819 held · ended Oct 31

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$818.69

Combined PnL

$3.68

Smart Money Entry

43.8¢ → 97.7¢

+123% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$496.22

Total Shares601

Combined PnL-$2.82

No1 trader

Total Value$0.7

Total Shares11

Combined PnL+$6.5

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 61.7¢	$262.08	$321.77	+$61.77	20% 329-1356 (1685)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.5¢	$99.85	$212.79	+$112.94
└ No leg	Noavg 61.7¢	$160.13	$108.99	-$51.18
HE HellYeahTrader	Yesavg 41.1¢	$123.81	$247.07	+$35.88	55% 435-356 (791)
24 241532532432	Yesavg 44.9¢	$126.2	$228.9	-$36.18	59% 1859-1299 (3158)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 62.4¢	$21.22	$17.32	-$1.31	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$4.15	$2.94	-$1.21	55% 18125-14708 (32833)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$20.72	$0.7	+$6.5	53% 6587-5792 (12379)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$262.08

Value

$321.77

PnL

+$61.77

Record

20%

329-1356 (1685)

Both legs:

Yes$99.8538.5¢+$112.94

No$160.1361.7¢-$51.18

HellYeahTrader

Yes

Invested

$123.81

Value

$247.07

PnL

+$35.88

Record

55%

435-356 (791)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$126.2

Value

$228.9

PnL

-$36.18

Record

59%

1859-1299 (3158)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.22

Value

$17.32

PnL

-$1.31

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.15

Value

$2.94

PnL

-$1.21

Record

55%

18125-14708 (32833)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$20.72

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$6.5

Record

53%

6587-5792 (12379)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.8%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.