Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on November 11?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $64 held · ended Nov 11

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$64

Combined PnL

$0.21

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$63.57

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.43

Total Shares7

Combined PnL+$0.06

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$63.37	$19.29	-$0.23	55% 624-512 (1136)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 95¢	$16.48	$17.09	+$0.61	34% 333-660 (993)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$13.01	$12.83	-$0.17	27% 936-2514 (3450)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 94.9¢	$4.99	$4.95	-$0.04	22% 113-411 (524)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$4.88	$4.86	-$0.01	44% 421-533 (954)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$4.55	$4.55	-$0	31% 2801-6226 (9027)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.9¢	$0.35	$0.35	+$0	66% 4130-2158 (6288)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.01	$0.07	+$0.06	42% 737-1011 (1748)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$63.37

Value

$19.29

PnL

-$0.23

Record

55%

624-512 (1136)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$16.48

Value

$17.09

PnL

+$0.61

Record

34%

333-660 (993)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$13.01

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$0.17

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.04

Record

22%

113-411 (524)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$0.01

Record

44%

421-533 (954)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

2801-6226 (9027)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

4130-2158 (6288)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.06

Record

42%

737-1011 (1748)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.