Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on November 8?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 37¢ · $181 held · ends Nov 8

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$180.91

Combined PnL

-$54.32

Smart Money Entry

33.8¢ → 36.5¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$155.51

Total Shares426

Combined PnL-$54.01

No2 traders

Total Value$25.4

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$0.31

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 33.6¢	$221.82	$141.13	-$48.5	38% 886-1419 (2305)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 35.1¢	$13.84	$14.38	-$5.52	32% 2247-4751 (6998)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 72¢	$14.41	$12.7	-$1.71	53% 24327-21391 (45718)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 64.5¢	$11.3	$12.7	+$1.4	58% 21678-15777 (37455)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$221.82

Value

$141.13

PnL

-$48.5

Record

38%

886-1419 (2305)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.84

Value

$14.38

PnL

-$5.52

Record

32%

2247-4751 (6998)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$14.41

Value

$12.7

PnL

-$1.71

Record

53%

24327-21391 (45718)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.3

Value

$12.7

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

21678-15777 (37455)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.