Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (66%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on November 7?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 34¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 7

Yes66¢No34¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$157.23

Combined PnL

-$13.42

Smart Money Entry

76.6¢ → 34¢

-56% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes66%

No34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$128.76

Total Shares175

Combined PnL-$8

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.47

Total Shares201

Combined PnL-$5.41

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$61.99	$63.14	+$1.15	53% 24327-21391 (45718)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 45.6¢	$25.91	$34.25	+$8.34	54% 10724-9236 (19960)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$46.09	$18.48	-$18.9	58% 21678-15777 (37455)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$20.3	$18.45	-$5.54	56% 778-605 (1383)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$8.85	$9.4	+$0.55	26% 7406-21210 (28616)
LU luciebot<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$2.59	$6.03	+$0.22	28% 3025-7837 (10862)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Yesavg 57.9¢	$4.08	$3.98	-$0.1	53% 8682-7790 (16472)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 58.5¢	$14.87	$1.82	+$0.46	53% 4562-4051 (8613)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 60.8¢	$12.2	$1.66	+$0.4	39% 2430-3869 (6299)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$61.99

Value

$63.14

PnL

+$1.15

Record

53%

24327-21391 (45718)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$25.91

Value

$34.25

PnL

+$8.34

Record

54%

10724-9236 (19960)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$46.09

Value

$18.48

PnL

-$18.9

Record

58%

21678-15777 (37455)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.3

Value

$18.45

PnL

-$5.54

Record

56%

778-605 (1383)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$0.55

Record

26%

7406-21210 (28616)

luciebot<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.59

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$0.22

Record

28%

3025-7837 (10862)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$3.98

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

8682-7790 (16472)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$14.87

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$0.46

Record

53%

4562-4051 (8613)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$12.2

Value

$1.66

PnL

+$0.4

Record

39%

2430-3869 (6299)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 34%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.1%

34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$176.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

276.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.