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YesYesYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesYesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 3°C on November 8?
Resolved No. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$45.62
Smart Money Signal
Yes
6 of 7 top traders (86%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares466
Combined PnL-$45.62
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 86%No — 14%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $0 | — | -$6.34 | 47% 47397-53674 (101071) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$2.81 | 32% 21135-45368 (66503) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $25.36 | — | -$25.36 | 30% 2852-6533 (9385) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $11.11 | — | -$11.11 | 21% 929-3491 (4420) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35274-83611 (118885) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 35% 1117-2064 (3181) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 22% 3328-11802 (15130) |
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
-$6.34
Record
47%
47397-53674 (101071)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$2.81
Record
32%
21135-45368 (66503)
0X
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100Invested
$25.36
Value
—
PnL
-$25.36
Record
30%
2852-6533 (9385)
0X
0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100Invested
$11.11
Value
—
PnL
-$11.11
Record
21%
929-3491 (4420)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35274-83611 (118885)
AN
anothercoinCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
1117-2064 (3181)
LU
luciebot<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
3328-11802 (15130)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x3e25f674...5ca279
Slug
highest-temperature-in-ankara-on-november-8-2026-3c