Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on November 6?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 25¢ · $560 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$559.81
-$9.44
30.4¢ → 25¢
-18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 30.4¢ | $294.45 | $271.06 | -$23.39 | 40% 845-1252 (2097) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 67.7¢ | $211.04 | $216.76 | +$9.19 | 56% 724-559 (1283) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $39.42 | $41.31 | +$1.89 | 13% 533-3528 (4061) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 64.8¢ | $12.67 | $10.91 | +$1.75 | 72% 13906-5483 (19389) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $9.18 | $9.5 | +$0.33 | 53% 23766-20936 (44702) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 71.5¢ | $12.16 | $8.98 | +$0.7 | 58% 21302-15462 (36764) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $1.19 | $1.29 | +$0.1 | 53% 8597-7672 (16269) |
Invested
$294.45
Value
$271.06
PnL
-$23.39
Record
40%
845-1252 (2097)
Invested
$211.04
Value
$216.76
PnL
+$9.19
Record
56%
724-559 (1283)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$39.42
Value
$41.31
PnL
+$1.89
Record
13%
533-3528 (4061)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$12.67
Value
$10.91
PnL
+$1.75
Record
72%
13906-5483 (19389)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$0.33
Record
53%
23766-20936 (44702)
Invested
$12.16
Value
$8.98
PnL
+$0.7
Record
58%
21302-15462 (36764)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$1.29
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
8597-7672 (16269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.