Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on November 5?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 94¢ · $180 held · ends Nov 5

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$180.21

Combined PnL

-$6.15

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 93.5¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$178.75

Total Shares207

Combined PnL-$5.59

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.46

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.56

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$48.22	$43.2	-$5.02	61% 15003-9455 (24458)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88¢	$69.53	$36.57	+$2.87	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$33.93	$25.38	-$1.1	76% 13050-4194 (17244)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 88.7¢	$20.38	$17.63	-$0.46	54% 10281-8887 (19168)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.79	$17.48	-$0.31	47% 1710-1898 (3608)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$18.86	$16.8	-$2.06	53% 23096-20320 (43416)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$10.87	$10.88	+$0.01	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 84¢	$7.5	$6.49	+$0.19	27% 6994-19119 (26113)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 81¢	$5	$4.33	+$0.28	44% 2229-2873 (5102)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1.92	$1.46	-$0.56	56% 664-524 (1188)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$48.22

Value

$43.2

PnL

-$5.02

Record

61%

15003-9455 (24458)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$69.53

Value

$36.57

PnL

+$2.87

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$33.93

Value

$25.38

PnL

-$1.1

Record

76%

13050-4194 (17244)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$20.38

Value

$17.63

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

10281-8887 (19168)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$17.79

Value

$17.48

PnL

-$0.31

Record

47%

1710-1898 (3608)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.86

Value

$16.8

PnL

-$2.06

Record

53%

23096-20320 (43416)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$10.87

Value

$10.88

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$6.49

PnL

+$0.19

Record

27%

6994-19119 (26113)

123987456<$100

Invested

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.28

Record

44%

2229-2873 (5102)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.56

Record

56%

664-524 (1188)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.