Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (88%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 8?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (62%) · Yes at 12¢ · $198 held · ends Nov 8

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 62%

Total Value

$198.1

Combined PnL

-$12.78

Smart Money Entry

33.4¢ → 12¢

-64% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$129.8

Total Shares457

Combined PnL-$16.51

No5 traders

Total Value$68.27

Total Shares77

Combined PnL+$3.73

Yes — 62%No — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 39.1¢	$111.91	$103.09	-$2.59	37% 903-1557 (2460)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 79.7¢	$23.91	$26.4	+$2.49	45% 9808-11964 (21772)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 88¢	$17.6	$17.6	+$0	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.8¢	$26.05	$12.14	-$13.92	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 80¢	$10.1	$9.59	-$0.51	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 73¢	$7.3	$8.8	+$1.5	44% 13945-17925 (31870)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.4¢	$7.07	$6.79	-$0.27	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 61.3¢	$5.63	$5.88	+$0.25	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.4¢	$3.76	$2.93	-$0.82	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.6¢	$0.67	$2.52	+$1.85	42% 2420-3373 (5793)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.1¢	$1.41	$1.12	-$0.29	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.07	$0.61	-$0.46	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.6	$0.6	+$0	36% 1206-2165 (3371)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$111.91

Value

$103.09

PnL

-$2.59

Record

37%

903-1557 (2460)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$23.91

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$2.49

Record

45%

9808-11964 (21772)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$17.6

Value

$17.6

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.05

Value

$12.14

PnL

-$13.92

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.1

Value

$9.59

PnL

-$0.51

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$7.3

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$1.5

Record

44%

13945-17925 (31870)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.07

Value

$6.79

PnL

-$0.27

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$5.63

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$0.25

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.76

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$0.82

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.67

Value

$2.52

PnL

+$1.85

Record

42%

2420-3373 (5793)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.12

PnL

-$0.29

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$0.46

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.6

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors No 88%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.6%

12.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$637.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

737.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.