Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on November 5?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $102 held · ended Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$101.54

Combined PnL

-$0.69

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$101.31

Total Shares102

Combined PnL+$2.7

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares66

Combined PnL-$3.39

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96¢	$83.78	$50.45	+$2.1	58% 21138-15369 (36507)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$29.49	$29.91	+$0.42	43% 2312-3103 (5415)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99¢	$10.89	$10.97	+$0.08	26% 7287-21050 (28337)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$93.03	$9.98	+$0.09	54% 12396-10607 (23003)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.12	$0.11	-$2.04	41% 832-1198 (2030)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$92	$0.05	-$1.17	73% 13762-5200 (18962)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.16	$0.05	-$0.11	52% 30789-28932 (59721)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$14.79	$0.03	-$0.07	28% 2733-7094 (9827)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$83.78

Value

$50.45

PnL

+$2.1

Record

58%

21138-15369 (36507)

123987456<$100

Invested

$29.49

Value

$29.91

PnL

+$0.42

Record

43%

2312-3103 (5415)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$10.97

PnL

+$0.08

Record

26%

7287-21050 (28337)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$93.03

Value

$9.98

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

12396-10607 (23003)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$2.04

Record

41%

832-1198 (2030)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$1.17

Record

73%

13762-5200 (18962)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

30789-28932 (59721)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.79

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.07

Record

28%

2733-7094 (9827)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.