Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 47¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$231.62
13.3¢ → 47.4¢
+257% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $412 | $400 | -$11.93 | 20% 317-1301 (1618) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67¢ | $268 | $259.6 | -$8.4 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36¢ | $143.92 | $140.4 | -$3.53 | |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 12.1¢ | $50.92 | $391.04 | +$253.56 | 47% 674-749 (1423) |
24 241532532432 | Noavg 72.2¢ | $181.23 | $190.44 | +$9.22 | 59% 1820-1267 (3087) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.2¢ | $20.12 | $21.86 | +$1.74 | 50% 1841-1816 (3657) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.2¢ | $6.98 | $7.7 | +$0.72 | 55% 415-340 (755) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 74.3¢ | $193.67 | $4.7 | -$33.62 | 53% 6553-5771 (12324) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$412
Value
$400
PnL
-$11.93
Record
20%
317-1301 (1618)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.92
Value
$391.04
PnL
+$253.56
Record
47%
674-749 (1423)
Invested
$181.23
Value
$190.44
PnL
+$9.22
Record
59%
1820-1267 (3087)
Invested
$20.12
Value
$21.86
PnL
+$1.74
Record
50%
1841-1816 (3657)
Invested
$6.98
Value
$7.7
PnL
+$0.72
Record
55%
415-340 (755)
Invested
$193.67
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$33.62
Record
53%
6553-5771 (12324)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.