Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on November 2?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $89 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$88.63
$5.54
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $27.26 | $32.61 | +$5.35 | 56% 14530-11397 (25927) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $32.89 | $32.09 | -$0.26 | 18% 381-1779 (2160) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $8.96 | $14.58 | +$0.04 | 48% 349-380 (729) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $8.95 | $9.36 | +$0.41 | 58% 3434-2465 (5899) |
Invested
$27.26
Value
$32.61
PnL
+$5.35
Record
56%
14530-11397 (25927)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$32.89
Value
$32.09
PnL
-$0.26
Record
18%
381-1779 (2160)
Invested
$8.96
Value
$14.58
PnL
+$0.04
Record
48%
349-380 (729)
Invested
$8.95
Value
$9.36
PnL
+$0.41
Record
58%
3434-2465 (5899)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.