Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 30?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $601 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$600.75
-$17.24
63.1¢ → 71¢
+13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $295.61 | $286.94 | -$6.12 | 22% 291-1049 (1340) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.4¢ | $181.81 | $209.47 | +$27.57 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.6¢ | $110.74 | $77.47 | -$33.69 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 63¢ | $174.65 | $202.38 | +$27.72 | 56% 345-275 (620) |
24 241532532432CTR | Yesavg 38.5¢ | $148.8 | $104.37 | -$44.42 | 59% 1694-1159 (2853) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.8¢ | $20.95 | $6.21 | -$0.48 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $0.91 | $0.85 | -$0.06 | 53% 6441-5643 (12084) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$295.61
Value
$286.94
PnL
-$6.12
Record
22%
291-1049 (1340)
Both legs:
Invested
$174.65
Value
$202.38
PnL
+$27.72
Record
56%
345-275 (620)
Invested
$148.8
Value
$104.37
PnL
-$44.42
Record
59%
1694-1159 (2853)
Invested
$20.95
Value
$6.21
PnL
-$0.48
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
Invested
$0.91
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
6441-5643 (12084)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.