Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 5°C on November 14?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $136 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$135.86

Combined PnL

-$25.1

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$135.75

Total Shares136

Combined PnL+$0.14

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.11

Total Shares219

Combined PnL-$25.24

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$59.9	$59.97	+$0.07	53% 7043-6178 (13221)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.99	+$0.05	34% 275-525 (800)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$24.97	$24.98	+$0.01	34% 234-460 (694)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.81	$20.82	+$0.01	42% 1628-2289 (3917)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$65.39	$0.06	-$16.79	29% 3185-7958 (11143)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.64	$0.03	-$4.61	31% 165-364 (529)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.74	$0.01	-$1.73	39% 3638-5770 (9408)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.66	$0.01	-$1.65	36% 3765-6817 (10582)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	49% 787-828 (1615)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$59.9

Value

$59.97

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

7043-6178 (13221)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

275-525 (800)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$24.97

Value

$24.98

PnL

+$0.01

Record

34%

234-460 (694)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$20.81

Value

$20.82

PnL

+$0.01

Record

42%

1628-2289 (3917)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.39

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$16.79

Record

29%

3185-7958 (11143)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.64

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.61

Record

31%

165-364 (529)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.74

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.73

Record

39%

3638-5770 (9408)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.65

Record

36%

3765-6817 (10582)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

787-828 (1615)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.