Harris's Democratic nomination odds dip to 3% by December 31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 72¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$1.2K
$137.67
53.1¢ → 72¢
+36% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 53¢ | $723.86 | $963.72 | +$239.86 | — 5-1 (6) |
SP SPLPBCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $241.96 | $160.43 | -$81.53 | 23% 511-1698 (2209) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $36.79 | $34.96 | +$3.18 | 41% 3187-4522 (7709) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.7¢ | $66.05 | $31.92 | -$6.09 | 42% 13-18 (31) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $41.16 | $25.62 | -$15.54 | 9% 3-30 (33) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $12.8 | $10.59 | -$2.21 | — 3-4 (7) |
viniiInvested
$723.86
Value
$963.72
PnL
+$239.86
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Invested
$241.96
Value
$160.43
PnL
-$81.53
Record
23%
511-1698 (2209)
Invested
$36.79
Value
$34.96
PnL
+$3.18
Record
41%
3187-4522 (7709)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$66.05
Value
$31.92
PnL
-$6.09
Record
42%
13-18 (31)
Invested
$41.16
Value
$25.62
PnL
-$15.54
Record
9%
3-30 (33)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$10.59
PnL
-$2.21
Record
—
3-4 (7)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.