Will Antigua GFC win on 2026-11-15?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$2.8K
$258.29
66.8¢ → 87.5¢
+31% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 66.1¢ | $885.87 | $897.87 | +$12 | 54% 2045-1764 (3809) |
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $761.84 | $804.46 | +$42.62 | 46% 3434-3964 (7398) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 66.5¢ | $377.75 | $505.3 | +$127.55 | 52% 2600-2381 (4981) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 68.8¢ | $338.43 | $430.52 | +$92.09 | 46% 1257-1451 (2708) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $68.68 | $70.84 | +$2.17 | 36% 525-952 (1477) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $63.24 | $62.31 | -$0.93 | 56% 703-544 (1247) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 78.7¢ | $17.69 | $13.82 | -$3.87 | 35% 674-1228 (1902) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $20.78 | $8.72 | -$12.06 | 48% 4844-5167 (10011) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $7.27 | $6.99 | -$0.28 | 38% 1445-2329 (3774) |
BI biying99999<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $3.85 | $3.85 | +$0 | 41% 161-236 (397) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $2.25 | $1.25 | -$1 | 48% 2668-2892 (5560) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$885.87
Value
$897.87
PnL
+$12
Record
54%
2045-1764 (3809)
Invested
$761.84
Value
$804.46
PnL
+$42.62
Record
46%
3434-3964 (7398)
Invested
$377.75
Value
$505.3
PnL
+$127.55
Record
52%
2600-2381 (4981)
Invested
$338.43
Value
$430.52
PnL
+$92.09
Record
46%
1257-1451 (2708)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$68.68
Value
$70.84
PnL
+$2.17
Record
36%
525-952 (1477)
Invested
$63.24
Value
$62.31
PnL
-$0.93
Record
56%
703-544 (1247)
Invested
$17.69
Value
$13.82
PnL
-$3.87
Record
35%
674-1228 (1902)
Invested
$20.78
Value
$8.72
PnL
-$12.06
Record
48%
4844-5167 (10011)
Invested
$7.27
Value
$6.99
PnL
-$0.28
Record
38%
1445-2329 (3774)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$3.85
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
161-236 (397)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
2668-2892 (5560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.