CSD Mixco vs. Deportivo San Pedro: O/U 2.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$4.96

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 54¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$748.28

Total Shares1,256

Combined PnL+$10.55

Under6 traders

Total Value$310.51

Total Shares675

Combined PnL-$15.51

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 53.2¢	$514.03	$517.45	+$3.41	51% 27051-25620 (52671)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Overavg 51.9¢	$184.72	$192.32	+$7.6	53% 1125-987 (2112)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 48.6¢	$122.33	$115.82	-$6.51	50% 28899-28703 (57602)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$77.48	$75.44	-$2.04	49% 1821-1900 (3721)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$73.78	$69	-$4.78	49% 1777-1875 (3652)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$47.99	$45.99	-$2	58% 47475-34259 (81734)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 53.5¢	$38.98	$38.51	-$0.46	50% 26383-26006 (52389)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$3.51	$3.37	-$0.15	53% 2691-2371 (5062)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.88	-$0.04	49% 14973-15876 (30849)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$514.03

Value

$517.45

PnL

+$3.41

Record

51%

27051-25620 (52671)

TheComboConnoisseur

Over

Invested

$184.72

Value

$192.32

PnL

+$7.6

Record

53%

1125-987 (2112)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$122.33

Value

$115.82

PnL

-$6.51

Record

50%

28899-28703 (57602)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$77.48

Value

$75.44

PnL

-$2.04

Record

49%

1821-1900 (3721)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.78

Value

$69

PnL

-$4.78

Record

49%

1777-1875 (3652)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.99

Value

$45.99

PnL

-$2

Record

58%

47475-34259 (81734)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$38.98

Value

$38.51

PnL

-$0.46

Record

50%

26383-26006 (52389)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.51

Value

$3.37

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

2691-2371 (5062)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.04

Record

49%

14973-15876 (30849)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.