Will CD Marquense win on 2026-11-15?
8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $589 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 67%
$589.13
-$12.75
93.9¢ → 98.8¢
+5% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 95.8¢ | $183.19 | $183.2 | +$0.01 | 38% 1414-2288 (3702) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 94.5¢ | $156.1 | $128.07 | -$28.03 | 48% 4837-5163 (10000) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 93.7¢ | $111.17 | $114.35 | +$3.18 | 35% 674-1226 (1900) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $54.57 | $54.58 | +$0.01 | 38% 1426-2282 (3708) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $33.6 | $36.8 | +$3.2 | 53% 7612-6705 (14317) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.2¢ | $22.89 | $31.08 | +$8.19 | 25% 59-180 (239) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $22.7 | $22.66 | -$0.04 | 38% 1437-2313 (3750) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $8.3 | $9.2 | +$0.9 | 54% 2011-1740 (3751) |
SU suntori<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4.76 | $5.47 | +$0.71 | 46% 3415-3955 (7370) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $1.99 | $2.4 | +$0.42 | 41% 1224-1758 (2982) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $7.35 | $0.9 | -$1.45 | 48% 2658-2887 (5545) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.25 | $0.4 | +$0.15 | 52% 2600-2380 (4980) |
Invested
$183.19
Value
$183.2
PnL
+$0.01
Record
38%
1414-2288 (3702)
Invested
$156.1
Value
$128.07
PnL
-$28.03
Record
48%
4837-5163 (10000)
Invested
$111.17
Value
$114.35
PnL
+$3.18
Record
35%
674-1226 (1900)
Invested
$54.57
Value
$54.58
PnL
+$0.01
Record
38%
1426-2282 (3708)
Invested
$33.6
Value
$36.8
PnL
+$3.2
Record
53%
7612-6705 (14317)
Invested
$22.89
Value
$31.08
PnL
+$8.19
Record
25%
59-180 (239)
Invested
$22.7
Value
$22.66
PnL
-$0.04
Record
38%
1437-2313 (3750)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$8.3
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$0.9
Record
54%
2011-1740 (3751)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$0.71
Record
46%
3415-3955 (7370)
Invested
$1.99
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.42
Record
41%
1224-1758 (2982)
Invested
$7.35
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$1.45
Record
48%
2658-2887 (5545)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
2600-2380 (4980)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.