Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Aurora FC vs. CSD Mixco end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 28¢ · $135 held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$134.79
$8.64
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.8¢ | $54.93 | $53.5 | -$1.43 | 51% 2691-2616 (5307) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $25.43 | $35.87 | +$10.44 | 47% 1724-1982 (3706) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $16.46 | $16.24 | -$0.22 | 34% 610-1204 (1814) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $8.06 | $8.06 | -$0 | 41% 614-874 (1488) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $7.3 | $7.3 | +$0 | 53% 6285-5568 (11853) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.4¢ | $7.39 | $7.29 | -$0.1 | 33% 593-1215 (1808) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $3.65 | -$0.05 | 49% 1338-1368 (2706) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $2.88 | $2.88 | +$0 | 33% 589-1191 (1780) |
Invested
$54.93
Value
$53.5
PnL
-$1.43
Record
51%
2691-2616 (5307)
Invested
$25.43
Value
$35.87
PnL
+$10.44
Record
47%
1724-1982 (3706)
Invested
$16.46
Value
$16.24
PnL
-$0.22
Record
34%
610-1204 (1814)
Invested
$8.06
Value
$8.06
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
614-874 (1488)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6285-5568 (11853)
Invested
$7.39
Value
$7.29
PnL
-$0.1
Record
33%
593-1215 (1808)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$3.65
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
1338-1368 (2706)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
589-1191 (1780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.