Will Aurora FC win on 2026-11-13?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 53¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$139.43

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 52.5¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,105

Combined PnL+$145.99

No8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,922

Combined PnL-$6.56

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE Lexington	Yesavg 48.9¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$142.51	— 0-1 (1)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Noavg 50¢	$500	$510	+$10	10% 20-174 (194)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Noavg 50¢	$500	$510	+$10	47% 20-23 (43)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 52¢	$455.9	$447.14	-$8.77	36% 209-368 (577)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 52.8¢	$332.2	$323.56	-$8.64	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 51.5¢	$99.84	$98.86	-$0.98	55% 1640-1346 (2986)
MA MadridTime<$100	Yesavg 50.2¢	$76.35	$79.83	+$3.48	33% 556-1107 (1663)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$79.97	$73.25	-$6.72	41% 543-780 (1323)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$72.8	$71.4	-$1.4	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$12.62	$6.98	-$0.05	52% 754-704 (1458)

Lexington

Yes

Invested

$1,933.01

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$142.51

Record

—

0-1 (1)

NotradecopyCTR

Invested

$500

Value

$510

PnL

+$10

Record

10%

20-174 (194)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$510

PnL

+$10

Record

47%

20-23 (43)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$455.9

Value

$447.14

PnL

-$8.77

Record

36%

209-368 (577)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$332.2

Value

$323.56

PnL

-$8.64

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$99.84

Value

$98.86

PnL

-$0.98

Record

55%

1640-1346 (2986)

MadridTime<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.35

Value

$79.83

PnL

+$3.48

Record

33%

556-1107 (1663)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$79.97

Value

$73.25

PnL

-$6.72

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$72.8

Value

$71.4

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$12.62

Value

$6.98

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

754-704 (1458)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.