Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CSD Municipal win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 50¢ · $417 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$416.78
$10.34
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+21 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $478.93 | $286.73 | -$192.2 | 49% 4290-4528 (8818) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54¢ | $378.38 | $147.06 | -$231.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56.9¢ | $100.55 | $139.66 | +$39.12 | |
BI biying99999CTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $47.61 | $49.31 | +$1.7 | 37% 129-216 (345) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $25.08 | $25.25 | +$0.17 | 53% 2358-2131 (4489) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $23.2 | $23.2 | +$0 | 38% 1183-1919 (3102) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $4.67 | $13.55 | +$8.88 | 47% 1065-1216 (2281) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $11.58 | $11.2 | -$0.38 | 41% 1108-1568 (2676) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $2.9 | -$0.05 | 37% 1176-1966 (3142) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $2.32 | $2.32 | +$0 | 56% 598-472 (1070) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $5.6 | $2.32 | +$0.02 | 54% 1641-1409 (3050) |
Invested
$478.93
Value
$286.73
PnL
-$192.2
Record
49%
4290-4528 (8818)
Both legs:
Invested
$47.61
Value
$49.31
PnL
+$1.7
Record
37%
129-216 (345)
Invested
$25.08
Value
$25.25
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
2358-2131 (4489)
Invested
$23.2
Value
$23.2
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
1183-1919 (3102)
Invested
$4.67
Value
$13.55
PnL
+$8.88
Record
47%
1065-1216 (2281)
Invested
$11.58
Value
$11.2
PnL
-$0.38
Record
41%
1108-1568 (2676)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$0.05
Record
37%
1176-1966 (3142)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
598-472 (1070)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$5.6
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
1641-1409 (3050)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.