Will CD Malacateco win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$133.67

Smart Money Entry

85.7¢ → 99.5¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,831

Combined PnL+$145.03

Yes2 traders

Total Value$14.23

Total Shares119

Combined PnL-$11.37

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 80.7¢	$628.69	$655.64	+$46.36	49% 4290-4528 (8818)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96.8¢	$647.44	$645.77	-$1.67	37% 1176-1966 (3142)
VE Venusian	Noavg 74.8¢	$227.79	$303.1	+$75.32	37% 1155-1966 (3121)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$75.31	$76.44	+$1.13	47% 1065-1216 (2281)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 69¢	$43.63	$57.54	+$13.91	37% 1153-1939 (3092)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$34.68	$41.14	+$6.46	38% 1183-1919 (3102)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 68¢	$10.45	$13.98	+$3.53	33% 415-860 (1275)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$24.46	$7.17	-$17.29	53% 2358-2131 (4489)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.14	$7.06	+$5.92	46% 2939-3486 (6425)

Flaznorp

Invested

$628.69

Value

$655.64

PnL

+$46.36

Record

49%

4290-4528 (8818)

LightParadox

Invested

$647.44

Value

$645.77

PnL

-$1.67

Record

37%

1176-1966 (3142)

Venusian

Invested

$227.79

Value

$303.1

PnL

+$75.32

Record

37%

1155-1966 (3121)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$75.31

Value

$76.44

PnL

+$1.13

Record

47%

1065-1216 (2281)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$43.63

Value

$57.54

PnL

+$13.91

Record

37%

1153-1939 (3092)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$34.68

Value

$41.14

PnL

+$6.46

Record

38%

1183-1919 (3102)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$10.45

Value

$13.98

PnL

+$3.53

Record

33%

415-860 (1275)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.46

Value

$7.17

PnL

-$17.29

Record

53%

2358-2131 (4489)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$7.06

PnL

+$5.92

Record

46%

2939-3486 (6425)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.