Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Olympiacos Piraeus vs. PAOK Thessaloniki: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 49¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$5.6K
$628.56
48.4¢ → 48.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 47¢ | $2.2K | $3.2K | +$983.57 | 50% 32547-32694 (65241) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 51.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$90.15 | 50% 23449-23463 (46912) |
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34 | Underavg 46.9¢ | $694.49 | $717.85 | +$23.36 | 47% 215-246 (461) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 77.6¢ | $804.94 | $513.22 | -$291.72 | 51% 47136-44473 (91609) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $450 | $103 | +$3 | 56% 195-151 (346) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 47.5¢ | $96.5 | $97 | +$0.5 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
Invested
$2,197.94
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$983.57
Record
50%
32547-32694 (65241)
Invested
$1,126.21
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$90.15
Record
50%
23449-23463 (46912)
Invested
$694.49
Value
$717.85
PnL
+$23.36
Record
47%
215-246 (461)
Invested
$804.94
Value
$513.22
PnL
-$291.72
Record
51%
47136-44473 (91609)
Invested
$450
Value
$103
PnL
+$3
Record
56%
195-151 (346)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$96.5
Value
$97
PnL
+$0.5
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.