Will PAE PS Kalamata win on 2026-11-02?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 56¢ · $267 held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$267.15
-$6.87
57.9¢ → 56.5¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 58¢ | $203 | $197.75 | -$5.25 | 51% 17602-16613 (34215) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 57.6¢ | $37.47 | $36.76 | -$0.71 | 53% 16253-14437 (30690) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $22.33 | $21.56 | -$0.58 | 49% 13477-14173 (27650) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $7.18 | $6.93 | -$0.19 | 58% 43585-31701 (75286) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $4.3 | $4.16 | -$0.15 | 50% 24998-24713 (49711) |
Invested
$203
Value
$197.75
PnL
-$5.25
Record
51%
17602-16613 (34215)
Invested
$37.47
Value
$36.76
PnL
-$0.71
Record
53%
16253-14437 (30690)
Invested
$22.33
Value
$21.56
PnL
-$0.58
Record
49%
13477-14173 (27650)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.18
Value
$6.93
PnL
-$0.19
Record
58%
43585-31701 (75286)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.16
PnL
-$0.15
Record
50%
24998-24713 (49711)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.