AGS Astéras Trípolis vs. AE Kifisiás: O/U 2.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 56¢ · $13K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
1 arb excluded
$13.2K
-$817.11
45.8¢ → 55.5¢
+21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 46.3¢ | $6.5K | $6.3K | -$257.24 | 72% 2221-851 (3072) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 53¢ | $5.0K | $4.4K | -$610.82 | 54% 55325-47376 (102701) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 47.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$25.26 | 50% 24110-23737 (47847) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 47.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$29.22 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 53.1¢ | $530.63 | $534.58 | +$3.96 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 53.9¢ | $670.87 | $690.64 | +$19.77 | 50% 11942-12092 (24034) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 30.5¢ | $149.35 | $178.89 | +$29.54 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $63.63 | $64.2 | +$0.57 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $16.91 | $17.19 | +$1.28 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $1.53 | $1.33 | -$0.2 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
Invested
$6,518.13
Value
$6.3K
PnL
-$257.24
Record
72%
2221-851 (3072)
RN1CTRInvested
$4,968.48
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$610.82
Record
54%
55325-47376 (102701)
Invested
$1,663.63
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$25.26
Record
50%
24110-23737 (47847)
Both legs:
Invested
$670.87
Value
$690.64
PnL
+$19.77
Record
50%
11942-12092 (24034)
Invested
$149.35
Value
$178.89
PnL
+$29.54
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Invested
$63.63
Value
$64.2
PnL
+$0.57
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$16.91
Value
$17.19
PnL
+$1.28
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.53
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.