Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
AS Néstos Chrysoúpolis vs. PS Kalamáta: 1st Half O/U 0.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$3.4K
-$11.61
62.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 75¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$97.49 | 50% 32772-32329 (65101) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 47.6¢ | $768.08 | $933.07 | +$165 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
 RN1 | Underavg 57¢ | $210.9 | $369.82 | +$158.92 | 54% 55711-47797 (103508) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 19¢ | $93.94 | $343.62 | +$249.68 | 49% 18595-19019 (37614) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 79.8¢ | $815.34 | $311.75 | -$503.6 | 72% 2282-870 (3152) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 59¢ | $167.9 | $189.29 | +$21.39 | 50% 12108-12317 (24425) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $27.67 | $22.17 | -$5.5 | 53% 3047-2709 (5756) |
Invested
$1,330.93
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$97.49
Record
50%
32772-32329 (65101)
Invested
$768.08
Value
$933.07
PnL
+$165
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
RN1Invested
$210.9
Value
$369.82
PnL
+$158.92
Record
54%
55711-47797 (103508)
Invested
$93.94
Value
$343.62
PnL
+$249.68
Record
49%
18595-19019 (37614)
Invested
$815.34
Value
$311.75
PnL
-$503.6
Record
72%
2282-870 (3152)
Invested
$167.9
Value
$189.29
PnL
+$21.39
Record
50%
12108-12317 (24425)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$27.67
Value
$22.17
PnL
-$5.5
Record
53%
3047-2709 (5756)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.