Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 44¢ · $912 held · ends Dec 23
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$912
$204.06
64.1¢ → 43.5¢
-32% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 YoungAlphaGoat | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $239.31 | $483.01 | +$243.7 | — 0-5 (5) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 62.2¢ | $393.9 | $370.67 | -$23.23 | 41% 3005-4412 (7417) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 75.4¢ | $40.7 | $31.32 | -$9.38 | 15% 10-56 (66) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $30.99 | $23.97 | -$7.02 | — 8-9 (17) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $3.02 | $3.02 | -$0 | — 12-2 (14) |
YoungAlphaGoatInvested
$239.31
Value
$483.01
PnL
+$243.7
Record
—
0-5 (5)
Invested
$393.9
Value
$370.67
PnL
-$23.23
Record
41%
3005-4412 (7417)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$40.7
Value
$31.32
PnL
-$9.38
Record
15%
10-56 (66)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$30.99
Value
$23.97
PnL
-$7.02
Record
—
8-9 (17)
Invested
$3.02
Value
$3.02
PnL
-$0
Record
—
12-2 (14)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.