Gemini Carbon released by November 4, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$1.4K
$110.44
94¢ → 50.5¢
-46% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 94.3¢ | $846.28 | $931.56 | +$85.28 | 72% 3510-1334 (4844) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 92.9¢ | $209.47 | $237.86 | +$28.39 | 89% 4684-550 (5234) |
 NadmiCTR | Yesavg 2¢ | $7.59 | $187.89 | -$3.23 | 47% 2041-2301 (4342) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.