Gemini Carbon released by November 6, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.0K
$10.16
82¢ → 86.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 The-Joker | Noavg 81.3¢ | $651.83 | $697.31 | +$25.43 | 68% 1492-693 (2185) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 85.7¢ | $281.5 | $241 | -$10.51 | 23% 287-958 (1245) |
 Parz1vaI<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $37.99 | $43.49 | +$4.25 | 72% 3489-1330 (4819) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.8¢ | $55.71 | $20.69 | -$9.18 | 42% 5201-7128 (12329) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $1.96 | $2.13 | +$0.16 | 36% 2032-3635 (5667) |
The-JokerInvested
$651.83
Value
$697.31
PnL
+$25.43
Record
68%
1492-693 (2185)
IstarothInvested
$281.5
Value
$241
PnL
-$10.51
Record
23%
287-958 (1245)
Parz1vaI<$100Invested
$37.99
Value
$43.49
PnL
+$4.25
Record
72%
3489-1330 (4819)
Invested
$55.71
Value
$20.69
PnL
-$9.18
Record
42%
5201-7128 (12329)
Invested
$1.96
Value
$2.13
PnL
+$0.16
Record
36%
2032-3635 (5667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.