Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 94¢ · $967 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$966.91
$56.91
73.1¢ → 94¢
+29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME melonmanm | Yesavg 74.7¢ | $309.38 | $387.98 | +$76.6 | 65% 484-260 (744) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 67.1¢ | $227.27 | $201.38 | -$25.88 | 50% 391-394 (785) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 72.7¢ | $116.38 | $115.01 | -$1.29 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 83.6¢ | $114.9 | $105.19 | -$9.71 | 76% 517-161 (678) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 28.1¢ | $61.06 | $76.96 | +$29.37 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Noavg 19.5¢ | $28.59 | $59.37 | +$30.79 | 53% 1103-983 (2086) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 29.9¢ | $250.93 | $21.02 | -$42.96 | 42% 5196-7120 (12316) |
Invested
$309.38
Value
$387.98
PnL
+$76.6
Record
65%
484-260 (744)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$227.27
Value
$201.38
PnL
-$25.88
Record
50%
391-394 (785)
IstarothInvested
$116.38
Value
$115.01
PnL
-$1.29
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$114.9
Value
$105.19
PnL
-$9.71
Record
76%
517-161 (678)
Invested
$61.06
Value
$76.96
PnL
+$29.37
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
Invested
$28.59
Value
$59.37
PnL
+$30.79
Record
53%
1103-983 (2086)
Invested
$250.93
Value
$21.02
PnL
-$42.96
Record
42%
5196-7120 (12316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.