Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 61¢ · $968 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$967.69
-$24.11
49.5¢ → 60.5¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 43¢ | $392.04 | $520.1 | +$137.18 | 53% 1100-980 (2080) |
 eCash | Noavg 65¢ | $195 | $171 | -$19.5 | 68% 322-150 (472) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 49.4¢ | $243.63 | $157.35 | -$22.04 | 27% 281-769 (1050) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.4¢ | $77.74 | $98.34 | -$4.24 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 48.9¢ | $76.92 | $59.01 | -$17.8 | |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $68.63 | $64.13 | +$2.25 | 36% 2027-3621 (5648) |
LI lissartterCTR | Yesavg 63.9¢ | $387 | $27.76 | -$137.54 | 42% 5193-7116 (12309) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $104.79 | $27.35 | -$6.5 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
Invested
$392.04
Value
$520.1
PnL
+$137.18
Record
53%
1100-980 (2080)
eCashInvested
$195
Value
$171
PnL
-$19.5
Record
68%
322-150 (472)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$243.63
Value
$157.35
PnL
-$22.04
Record
27%
281-769 (1050)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.63
Value
$64.13
PnL
+$2.25
Record
36%
2027-3621 (5648)
Invested
$387
Value
$27.76
PnL
-$137.54
Record
42%
5193-7116 (12309)
Invested
$104.79
Value
$27.35
PnL
-$6.5
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.