Gemini Carbon released by November 11, 2026?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 68¢ · $760 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$759.53
$94.08
33.8¢ → 68¢
+101% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 32.5¢ | $183.81 | $384.93 | +$85.08 | 50% 393-397 (790) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $464.77 | $337.97 | -$24.12 | 20% 312-1273 (1585) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $154.46 | $229.82 | +$69.45 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.2¢ | $196.86 | $108.15 | -$93.57 | |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Yesavg 47.8¢ | $474.13 | $36.62 | +$9 | 36% 15508-27510 (43018) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.