Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$293.37
78.2¢ → 95.5¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 78.1¢ | $830.84 | $909.76 | +$78.92 | 50% 391-394 (785) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 13.4¢ | $44.32 | $240.95 | +$196.63 | 53% 1103-983 (2086) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 20.1¢ | $108.96 | $138.71 | +$29.74 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 76.4¢ | $128.77 | $125.12 | -$3.15 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 76.4¢ | $95.59 | $98.84 | +$3.25 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 26.1¢ | $32.64 | $26.27 | -$6.41 | |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 79.8¢ | $267.18 | $68.66 | -$12.4 | 42% 5196-7120 (12316) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Noavg 16¢ | $1.52 | $2 | +$0.48 | 39% 1759-2790 (4549) |
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$830.84
Value
$909.76
PnL
+$78.92
Record
50%
391-394 (785)
Invested
$44.32
Value
$240.95
PnL
+$196.63
Record
53%
1103-983 (2086)
Invested
$108.96
Value
$138.71
PnL
+$29.74
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$128.77
Value
$125.12
PnL
-$3.15
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
Both legs:
Invested
$267.18
Value
$68.66
PnL
-$12.4
Record
42%
5196-7120 (12316)
Invested
$1.52
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.48
Record
39%
1759-2790 (4549)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.