Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and US gas hit $3.50 by the end of 2026?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

$532.62

Smart Money Entry

96.5¢ → 100¢

+4% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares10,854

Combined PnL+$531.63

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.25

Total Shares253

Combined PnL+$0.99

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME MenacingTurtle	Noavg 96.2¢	$9.4K	$9.5K	+$512.02	56% 270-211 (481)
JJo	Noavg 99.9¢	$925.14	$925.57	+$0.43	66% 976-500 (1476)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 97.7¢	$214.21	$218.22	+$4	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
Lucerys	Noavg 98.3¢	$122.45	$99.5	+$1.2	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
Istaroth	Noavg 96.2¢	$765.88	$69.17	-$3.77	15% 459-2699 (3158)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$63.96	$35.44	+$0.72	46% 10278-11960 (22238)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$14.68	$9.95	+$0.19	55% 4405-3598 (8003)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 27.7¢	$9.02	$9.44	+$16.84	39% 1066-1669 (2735)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.18	$5.16	-$0.01	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$4.76	$0.25	+$0.99	35% 18059-33813 (51872)

MenacingTurtle

Invested

$9,392.85

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$512.02

Record

56%

270-211 (481)

JJo

Invested

$925.14

Value

$925.57

PnL

+$0.43

Record

66%

976-500 (1476)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$214.21

Value

$218.22

PnL

+$4

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

Lucerys

Invested

$122.45

Value

$99.5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

Istaroth

Invested

$765.88

Value

$69.17

PnL

-$3.77

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$63.96

Value

$35.44

PnL

+$0.72

Record

46%

10278-11960 (22238)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$14.68

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$0.19

Record

55%

4405-3598 (8003)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$9.02

Value

$9.44

PnL

+$16.84

Record

39%

1066-1669 (2735)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.01

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$0.99

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.