Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and US gas hit $3.50 by the end of 2026?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$48.47

Smart Money Entry

87.1¢ → 94.1¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$940.33

Total Shares977

Combined PnL+$128.07

Yes3 traders

Total Value$97.76

Total Shares1,457

Combined PnL-$176.54

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 91.1¢	$246.45	$257.58	+$11.77	42% 3180-4317 (7497)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 95.4¢	$207.24	$207.23	-$0.02	59% 11839-8177 (20016)
Istaroth	Noavg 96¢	$245.99	$151.73	+$0.91	14% 461-2758 (3219)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 53.1¢	$114.19	$147.87	+$100.28	47% 8368-9535 (17903)
Lucerys	Noavg 95.6¢	$124	$100.27	-$0.23	77% 12539-3686 (16225)
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 16.6¢	$340.7	$87.61	-$186	56% 272-212 (484)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$41.78	$42.13	+$0.36	56% 15854-12552 (28406)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 95.1¢	$19.79	$14.1	+$0.08	72% 13979-5358 (19337)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$20.21	$12.46	-$0.04	55% 4411-3608 (8019)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$27.22	$10.06	+$10.33	35% 18159-34016 (52175)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 36.2¢	$11.7	$6.96	+$14.96	39% 1087-1679 (2766)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$13.86	$0.1	-$0.86	25% 1720-5244 (6964)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$246.45

Value

$257.58

PnL

+$11.77

Record

42%

3180-4317 (7497)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$207.24

Value

$207.23

PnL

-$0.02

Record

59%

11839-8177 (20016)

Istaroth

Invested

$245.99

Value

$151.73

PnL

+$0.91

Record

14%

461-2758 (3219)

mildwindow27

Invested

$114.19

Value

$147.87

PnL

+$100.28

Record

47%

8368-9535 (17903)

Lucerys

Invested

$124

Value

$100.27

PnL

-$0.23

Record

77%

12539-3686 (16225)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

$340.7

Value

$87.61

PnL

-$186

Record

56%

272-212 (484)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100

Invested

$41.78

Value

$42.13

PnL

+$0.36

Record

56%

15854-12552 (28406)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$19.79

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$0.08

Record

72%

13979-5358 (19337)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$20.21

Value

$12.46

PnL

-$0.04

Record

55%

4411-3608 (8019)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.22

Value

$10.06

PnL

+$10.33

Record

35%

18159-34016 (52175)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$14.96

Record

39%

1087-1679 (2766)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.86

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.86

Record

25%

1720-5244 (6964)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.